Baseline Runway
Baseline path: existing housing stays in place, no structural asset-protection changes, care costs begin on the default timeline.
Outcome Summary
| Lifestyle: | Cost of living: | $48k/yr ($4000/mo) |
| Tithe: | $10k/yr ($800/mo) | |
| Total Tax & IRMAA: | State | $31k |
| Fed | $54k | |
| IRMAA | $0 | |
IRA Depleted:
2033
Real Estate tapped (HELOC or sale): $1,372k
Asset Depletion Risk:
🛑 DANGER — IRA depleted during memory care. Real estate liquidation required to fund remaining care.
| Assets | Cash Flow | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year (Age) | Real Estate (+appreciation) | IRA Open | Close | LTC Savings | Total Assets | Income (taxable) | Tax Deductions | Base Expenses | Budget (Lifestyle) | Net Cashflow | |
| 2026 (70) | $1,250k (+$54k) | $368k | $302k | $0k | $1.55M | $120k ($96k) |
$24k (24k A / 0k E)
|
$132k (15) | $108k ($48k) | $-7k | |
| 2027 (71) | $1,291k (+$56k) | $302k | $234k | $0k | $1.52M | $124k ($101k) |
$24k (24k A / 0k E)
|
$137k (15) | $111k ($50k) | $-7k | |
| 2028 (72) | $1,335k (+$58k) | $234k | $227k | $98k | $1.66M | $85k ($43k) |
$43k (43k A / 0k E)
|
$139k (15) | $115k ($53k) | $6k | |
| 2029 (73) | $1,380k (+$61k) | $227k | $191k | $193k | $1.76M | $88k ($45k) |
$43k (43k A / 0k E)
|
$144k (15) | $119k ($56k) | $7k | |
| 2030 (74) | $1,428k (+$63k) | $191k | $152k | $286k | $1.87M | $90k ($48k) |
$43k (43k A / 0k E)
|
$147k (15) | $123k ($58k) | $9k | |
| 2031 (75) | $1,478k (+$65k) | $152k | $93k | $362k | $1.93M | $107k ($26k) |
$82k (82k A / 0k E)
|
$186k (15) | $127k ($61k) | $3k | |
| 2032 (76) | $1,531k (+$68k) | $93k | $33k | $286k | $1.85M | $106k ($24k) |
$82k (82k A / 0k E)
|
$184k (15) | $125k ($58k) | $3k | |
| 2033 (77) | $1,586k (+$71k) | $33k | $0k | $212k | $1.80M | $77k ($-6k) |
$84k (84k A / 0k E)
|
$177k (15) | $122k ($54k) | $7k | |
| 2034 (78) | $1,644k (+$74k) | $0k | $0k | $114k | $1.76M | $19k ($-167k) |
$186k (186k A / 0k E)
|
$233k (16) | $47k ($0) | $0 | |
| 2035 (79) | $1,705k (+$77k) | $0k | $0k | $7k | $1.71M | $23k ($-172k) |
$194k (194k A / 0k E)
|
$250k (16) | $54k ($0) | $0k | |
| 2036 (80) | $1,769k (+$80k) | $0k | $0k | $0k | $1.77M | $113k ($-84k) |
$197k (197k A / 0k E)
|
$268k (16) | $63k ($0) | $0k | |
| 2037 (81) | $1,836k (+$83k) | $0k | $0k | $0k | $1.84M | $15k ($-199k) |
$214k (214k A / 0k E)
|
$290k (16) | $75k ($0) | $0k | |
| 2038 (82) | $1,907k (+$87k) | $0k | $0k | $0k | $1.91M | $27k ($-197k) |
$224k (224k A / 0k E)
|
$322k (16) | $96k ($0) | $-1k | |
| 2039 (83) | $1,981k (+$91k) | $0k | $0k | $0k | $1.98M | $46k ($-187k) |
$233k (233k A / 0k E)
|
$354k (16) | $116k ($0) | $0k | |
| 2040 (84) | $2,058k (+$94k) | $0k | $0k | $0k | $2.06M | $47k ($-197k) |
$244k (244k A / 0k E)
|
$389k (16) | $139k ($0) | $-89k | |
Scenario Decisions (protected housing trust remains present across all scenarios)
⚠ NON-VIABLE WITHOUT STRUCTURAL REWORK
The support property is already held in an existing protective trust. Any "no trust" scenario requires:
- Formal restructuring of the existing trust — the same legal work already required by the protected path
- or leaving the support property in fragmented protection while moving other assets, which defeats the planning objective
- or moving the support property into an exposed personal holding pattern, which defeats the original protection purpose
None of these are clean. This scenario is shown for comparison only — the protected scenarios are the only viable paths because they reuse work the support property already requires.
⚠ SUPPORT-TRUST SOLVENCY RISK — 20% DOWN PAYMENT
In prior sweeps, 20%-down scenarios have failed to satisfy the private-pay window because the support-property mortgage drag depletes the IRA before the protection window activates. The support trust may be insolvent in late projection years. Strongly recommend 80% or 100% down.
- • No additional trust structure — assets remain in the primary household's name
- • Summer 2026: support household moves out of the support property and in with the primary household as live-in caregiver (beginning the long residency period used by this plan)
- • Baseline scenario: C3 occupies condo, A pays C3 carrying costs.
- • As nursing needs intensify, begin searching for a memory care facility that guarantees (in writing) a Medicaid bed after 2–3 years of private pay
- • 2034: primary household enters memory care facility — private-pay window begins
- • 2037: Pre-Medicaid IRA liquidation — all remaining IRA & annuities liquidated into the SNT BEFORE Medicaid application (~$159k tax withholding), protecting these funds from Medicaid seizure so they can maintain the primary house and cover trust obligations
- • 2037: Pay off remaining SNT condo mortgage (if any), then file Medicaid application; lookback period (5 years from 2026 transfers) cleared in 2031
- • 2040 (primary household's death): Stepped-up basis on primary house and any remaining trust assets via §2041 LPOA → §1014 — eliminates accumulated capital gains
- • 2040: Sell primary house at stepped-up basis (~$1.6M projected proceeds, $0 capital gains)
- • 2040: Pay projected estate tax (~$118k on a ~$2.1M estate)
- • 2040: Repay the support household's documented $404k equity claim from house sale proceeds (legally enforceable per Summer 2026 acknowledgment)
- • 2040: Distribute remaining protection-trust assets in equal thirds to the fiduciary, dependent household, and support household — the dependent household's share is offset by trust inheritance to maintain even allocation
- • Planning horizon through 2040 (primary household age 84) —
Scenario Parameters
Timeline: LTC insurance payout in 2028, Memory Care starts 2034, Passing in 2040
Income & IRA
SSDI Monthly: $3000/mo ($36k/yr)
SSDI COLA: 2.0%/yr (constant — engine default per SSA projections)
IRA Growth Rate: 4.0%
SDIRA Starting Balance: $68k
Managed IRA Start: $300k (Confirm w/ advisor)
Support Property Rental Income: $2350/mo
Support Property Rental Increase: 4.0%/yr
Expenses & Care
Lifestyle Floor: $4000/mo
Pre-MC Charitable: $800/mo
MC Household Maintenance: $300/mo
MC Residual Lifestyle: $200/mo
Medical Base: $1200/mo
Memory Care (pre-inflation): $120k/yr
Memory Care Inflation: 5.0%
Support Property Management Fee: 8.0%
Real Estate
Primary House Value: $825k
Support Property Value: $425k
Primary Appreciation: 5.0%
Protected Condo Purchase: $300k
Support Property Appreciation: 3.0%
Support Property Maintenance: $2k/yr
Mortgage & HELOC
Protected Condo Purchase Price: $300k
Support Trust Seed Funding: $10k
Protected Condo Down Payment: 20% down
Primary Mortgage Rate (IO): 5.7%
Protected Condo Mortgage Rate (P&I): 6.3%
HELOC Rate: 7.5%